Formula for Success - Predicting Starting Pitching

One false belief amongst fantasy circles is that starting pitching is unpredictable and unless you draft the proven superstars, you are taking a gamble.  This belief could empty your pockets and end up costing you the season.

Most people would agree, that it is the lesser known (sleepers) players that make the difference between a winning and losing season.  This is why it is so critical to find a way of predicting a pitcher’s chance of success.

Here at Rotodoc.com, we have come up with a system that, not only predicts a pitchers chance to succeed accurately, but it also does it in a simple way.  So let us start off with the basics and then end with common sense.

• Look for a pitcher who can strike out batters (K/9 of at least 6.00).  When a pitcher has the ability to keep hitters guessing, he controls the game and, in turn, the outcome.  A rule of thumb to remember is that a ball not put into play cannot hurt you unless it is thrown for a walk or wild pitch. 

• Look for pitchers that have a good K/BB (at least 2-1).  You not only want a pitcher to throw strikes, but you also want him to remain in control while doing so.

• Look for pitchers who have the ability to limit their hits (AVG .260 and lower).  Pitcher’s that give up many hits might be tipping their pitches which allows for a greater number of base runners.  This increases their chance of giving up runs.

• Monitor how hard a pitcher is being hit (less the 1 HR/9).  A HR is the most devastating hit surrendered.  A pitcher who gets hit hard is indicating that he is not fooling anybody.

• Look for a pitcher that can induce plenty of ground balls (G/F of 1.23 or greater).  A pitcher that can provoke lots of ground balls is less likely to get hit hard, and is more likely to benefit from double plays.

So as you can see, drafting starting pitching can be a little easier than some believe.  Remember, do not get overly excited when scouting a pitchers ERA or the amount of wins that he has recorded.  Instead, look at the basics and the rest will fall into place.

Troy St.Louis

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