Drafting Hitting (RSI)

Rotodoc.com has come up with an accurate way of predicting hitting.  It focuses on a few key statistics, while taking a few other circumstances into account. 

First and foremost, we look at a player’s ability to get on base.  When a hitter reaches base often, he creates more chances to do damage (runs, steals, etc…).  Another key factor is how hard a player hits the ball.  Hitting the ball hard produces more HR’s and RBI’s. 

The statistic that most accurately displays these two abilities is OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage).  It gives an accurate account of a player’s overall performance.

Many scouting systems also use OPS to judge a player’s worth.  However, Rotodoc.com goes a little further.  Stolen bases are also of great importance and should also be counted when assessing a player’s value. 

To find a player’s value, we use the formula called RSI (Roto Success Indicator).  There are four parts to finding a player’s RSI.

First:  OPS + SB

• OPS + SB (SB = 0.005)
• OPS .850 + 10 SB (10 x .005 = .050)
• OPS .850 + .050 = .900

Second:  Age Factor (Each year, points remain unchanged)

• We have noticed a trend that players tend to perform either better or worse (on average) depending on their age.  So, we add or subtract numbers from his OPS + SB based on his opening day age.
• Points for age are, Age 20 (+.010), 21 (+.010), 22 (+.010), 23 (+.010), 24 (+.010), 25 (+.025), 26 (+.050), 27 (+.100), 28 (-.050), 29 (-.025), 30 (-.010).  Each following season past 30, continue to deduct -.010 from his total OPS + SB.
• OPS 850 + 10 SB = .900
• Age 24 = .010
• .900 + .010 = .910

Third:  Ball Park Factor (Points fluctuate only when stadium dimensions change or the team switches stadiums)

• Ball parks can have an effect on how well or on how poorly a player hits
• Certain parks favor hitters, while others favor pitchers, so each is given a point scale
• Only use this if it is the players first season in this ball park (e.g.; trade, free agent, etc…)
• Colorado (+100); Texas, Philadelphia, Chicago AL, Toronto, Chicago NL, Boston, Baltimore all (+.050); San Francisco, Arizona, Minnesota all (+.025); Milwaukee, Oakland, Houston, Atlanta, New York NL, Anaheim, Cleveland, St.Louis, Detroit all neutral (0); New York AL, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Kansas City all (-.025); Los Angels, Florida both (-.050); Washington, San Diego, Seattle all (-.100).
• OPS 850 + 10 SB = .900
• Age 24 = .010
• .900 + .010 = .910
• .910 - .025 (Kansas City) = .885

Four: Positional OPS + SB (Points fluctuate yearly)

• We must look at last season’s statistics and calculate the top 5 OPS + SB for each position (first base, catcher, outfield, etc…)
• Once we have the top 5 OPS + SB for each position, we should add them together
• Next we take the total number and divide it by 5
• We are then left with only 1 number (OPS + SB) for each position
• 2005 positional OPS + SB are as follows:  catcher = .887, first base = 1.021, second base = .901, third base = 1.018, short stop = .937, outfield = 1.170
• Take the player’s current OPS + SB + Age Indicator + Ball Park Effect and divide it by their positional OPS + SB to get a players true worth
• OPS 850 + 10 SB = .900
• Age 24 = .010
• .900 + .010 =  .910
• .910 - .025 (Kansas City) =  .885
• . 885 / .901 (second base Positional OPS + SB) =  RSI 98
• By our calculations, this second baseman should accumulate 98% (RSI) of the value of what a top 5 second baseman would produce.

This calculation has been tested and used for many years.  It is the most accurate method that we have found when predicting a hitter’s chance of success.  When used properly, it can mean the difference between success and failure.

Troy St.Louis

Fantasy Baseball Home

© Copyright 2005 Rotodoc.com All Rights Reserved

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